The impact of high-potential status on progression and conversion within a male rugby union talent system

The conversion rate of junior athletes to senior performance is typically used to judge efficiency in talent development. This study aimed to calculate the conversion rate of English academy rugby union players conferred with 'high-potential' 'England Academy Player' status, distinguishing them from their age-matched peers, from academy selection into the Premiership, the elite domestic league. Conversion was calculated overall and between academies, considering when players were conferred high-potential status. In total, 3127 male players were sampled. Players conferred with high-potential status early (prior to achieving a senior contract) accounted for 68.03% of elite debuts and had increased odds of converting compared to other player sub-populations (OR: 5.82, 95% CI: 4.60-7.37). Regression analysis inferred acquiring high-potential status at younger ages increased odds of a Premiership appearance by 2.501. However, delimiting to players achieving senior contracts, players conferred 'high-potential' after accomplishing a senior contract had a greater relative conversion (46.34%) compared to early status players (40.27%). Academy conversion rates and contribution to net development considerably varied (14.63-45.28% and 2.72-12.84%). Findings suggest that whilst high-potential status influences progression, other important factors influence player development. Results demonstrate the need to consider how the specific context of each academy within the talent system influences player development.

https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2025.2458357