Missing Kettles and Too Few Toasters: The Forecasting Methodology at Morphy Richards

Faced with problems in forecasting at Morphy Richards, this research represents an investigation into their forecasting methodology following the hypothesis that the current forecasting system was no longer sufficient to ensure guaranteed supply to customers, or to enable forward planning.

The purpose of the research was to identify any requirements for change within the forecasting system and to identify the ‘best practice’ within the industry. Primary research was carried out using a variety of methods with each method being chosen as the most appropriate for the purpose.

It was found that the forecasting system in use at Morphy Richards was actually in line with those used by the organisations that took part in the benchmarking operation. Morphy Richards’ forecasting system, with a few minor amendments, should be sufficient for use. However, it was found that the main problems experienced by Morphy Richards actually related to inventory control and the cultural issues of change management and leadership.

As such, the recommendations of this research are divided to focus separately on forecasting and cultural issues. These will include recommended amendment to the system, to the procedures for product launch and withdrawal and to the approach to change within the organisation.