Innovation Pathways to Adaption for Humanitarian and Development Goals: A Case Study of Aftershock Forecasting for Disaster Risk Management

The innovation process is central to effective adaption to climate change and development challenges, but models from business and management tend to dominate innovation theory, which sits outside the adaption-development paradigm. This paper presents an alternative conceptual framework to visualise innovations as pathways across the adaption-development landscape for humanitarian and development goals. This useful tool can reveal, map and coordinate innovation strategy. To demonstrate and validate this approach we analyse a case study of innovation in aftershock forecasting for humanitarian decision-making and show that the most effective strategy is for multiple innovation strands and hubs to move concurrently and cumulatively towards transformative humanitarian and development goals.