More pace variation and pack formation in successful world-class 10,000-m runners than in less successful competitors

Purpose To determine different relationships between, and predictive ability of, performance variables at intermediate distances with finishing time in elite male 10,000 m runners. Methods Official electronic finishing and 100 m split times of the men’s 10,000 m finals at the 2008 and 2016 Olympic Games and IAAF World Championships in 2013 and 2017 were obtained (125 athlete performances in total). Correlations were calculated between finishing times and positions and performance variables relating to speed, position, time to the leader and time to the runner in front at 2000, 4000, 6000, 8000 and 9900 m. Stepwise linear regression analysis was conducted between finishing times and positions and these variables across the race. One-way ANOVA was performed to identify differences between intermediate distances. Results The standard deviation and kurtosis of mean time, skewness of mean time and position and time difference to the leader were either correlated with or significantly contributed to predictions of finishing time and position at one of the analysed distance at least (0.81 ≥ r ≥ 0.30 and 0.0001 ≤ P ≤ 0.03, respectively). These variables also displayed variation across the race (0.0001 ≤ P ≤ 0.05). Conclusions The ability to undertake a high degree of pace variability, mostly characterised by acceleration in the final stages, is strongly associated with the achievement of high finishing positions in championship 10000 m racing. Furthermore, the adoption and maintenance of positions close to the front of the race from the early stages is important to achieve a high finishing position.